Slowdown or slump? Agents give their opinion on a house…
“In fact, Zoopla’s July 2021 House Price Index figures show housing demand still remaining 25% above average over the past five years, on par with year-on-year figures. the other.
“Following the 2021 stamp duty-driven moving frenzy, there is still a striking mismatch between supply and demand for properties, with the housing stock particularly low. As Halifax has noted, the continuing imbalance of supply and demand led house prices to rise 13% in June year-over-year, the highest since the end of 2004.”
However, Shaw acknowledges that growth will remain static.
He adds: “While we won’t see rapid price increases or huge price declines in the rest of 2022, we are seeing signs of stabilization in house prices.
“Given the Bank of England’s interest rate hike, rising mortgage rates and the impact of the cost of living crisis on homebuyers, the growth in home prices real estate appears to remain relatively static for the remainder of the year as the cost of living crisis is likely to impact the number of homes sold We expect slower growth, but no significant decline over the medium to long term .
Shaw predicted a mortgage rush, adding: “Mortgage interest rates have risen rapidly in 2022 following five increases in the Bank of England’s base rate. The further rise in interest rates this summer to 1.75%, the highest in more than a quarter century, means that mortgage lenders will raise rates again.
“When interest rates change, it always creates a wave of new demands, resulting in a backlog that can take weeks to clear. We expect to see people looking to buy or those looking to remortgage over the next six months trying to get a mortgage rate as soon as possible to avoid further rate hikes this year.
Shaw suggested that the North West real estate market should prosper.
He explained: “Despite a general cooling, LRG continues to see house price inflation in the North West and we expect to see continued house price growth in the region for the remainder of the year.
“The North West of England is an area that has a particular imbalance between supply and demand, with Liverpool and Manchester being two of the main cities for property demand, which is driving up the value.
“Outside the major cities, demand for properties in Warrington in particular has seen growth of up to 70% above the five-year average, while Oldham follows at 65% and Preston at 60%.
“As Rightmove data for July 2022 shows, the region is seeing an 11.2% year-on-year increase in house prices from July 2021, as well as a 0.8% increase month on year. the other from June. This compares to growth of 0% in the South East and a decline of -2.9% in Wales.”
In contrast, Lee, who has been an agent for nearly 50 years, revealed his advice to buyers currently is to buy if you need to but wait if you’re not in a rush.
Speaking in a video interview with BestAgent founder Charlie Lamdin, Lee said: “My personal view is that I think we’re looking at a downturn in the market.
“I’ve seen ups and downs and ups and downs, it’s finally leveling off.
“We are on hiatus due to the shortage of goods which has driven the market up dramatically, which will stabilize due to the economic situation.
“If people say I should buy now, if you need it, the answer has to be yes.
“If you can take your time and keep an eye on the market, maybe the answer is to wait and see what happens.
“It might not necessarily be good advice for my other real estate agents, but it comes down to the word trust, you have to give bad advice and good advice.
“We don’t know how much worse it will get, my advice is if you need to buy keep going, if you don’t keep an eye on what the market is doing.”
Meanwhile, former agency founder and real estate marketing veteran John Durrant also drew on his own experience working in the 1970s to highlight parallels with the effects of war, the rising energy bills, soaring inflation and the resulting impact on interest rates, bank loans and ultimately home buying and selling.
He said in a post on LinkedIn, “Now seems like a good time to be extra careful with marketing reviews, even if it means losing some guidance.
“Agents can also take a look at their existing listings – if there are any that they think could be overpriced, it is better to be proactive now than to see the value drop if you wait too long. long to share your concerns with your supplier.”
Durrant warned that former chancellor Rishi Sunak’s stamp duty vacation had created a property bubble that was not sustainable.
He said: ‘It left a void which other families were not ready to fill as many would not have realized they would need to move, and for others the savings on stamp duty were worth less than the inconvenience of taking their projects this far. .
“So we experienced a gridlock, a shortage of properties coming to market which in turn ensured rapid and self-sustaining price increases. A fake market! A fucking wait to burst. If sellers don’t see other homes to buy and prices are rising rapidly, why would they risk marketing their own homes?”
Durrant warns that economic conditions are changing rapidly – just as they did in the 1970s, adding: “The data suggests we are at the genesis of this. Now is the time to advise extreme caution.
“If you think about it, there are probably thousands of agents who have only experienced a seller’s market. They will find it difficult to accept that a market can change from what they have known throughout their career. But it is possible. If these agents keep doing what they’ve always done, chances are it’s bad for them.
It is likely that different parts of the country will respond more quickly than others. In other words, not everyone will experience a downturn just yet. Time will tell us.
“Writing about this makes me feel really vulnerable. I don’t like the words I write at all. And yet, I feel that I have to.
“I really hope I’m wrong. But if I’m right, I believe this coming market will see professional agents succeed and emerge stronger. Unfortunately, I believe others will fail. It’s time to intensify.